Updated Weekly Report: Wk 5 now showing

The data sheets behind the NEW: Weekly Report, have been refreshed, so the reporting is now showing for the week of February 1-7.
The demand trend down continues (as does the milder than usual winter), with the average Ontario Demand dropping over 1400MW against the same week the previous year.
The price trend down continues, with the average Hourly Ontario Energy Price dropping over $14/MWh, to only $21.58.
There was a large curtailment of supply necessary the morning of the 1st, coincident with strong wind production and negative prices.

Weekly Reporting on Ontario's Electricity System

After early reports, my testing does indicate the page referenced in this post, and many pages already on this site, are not compatible with Internet Explorer 8 - the last IE available for Windows XP.

I have no intention of making the pages compatible - see the sidebar for options.

I've posted a summary of weekly supply and demand statistics in Ontario. The final pieces of the data driving the reporting are posted by the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), which is generally on Friday. My reporting thus far agrees, as expected, with the reliable IESO reporting .  There are 3 reasons to check out mine:

• Context - I include comparison data to the same week in the prior year. 
• Graphics - Primary the communication is via graphs.  
• Curtailment - The reporting includes an estimation of how much supply is curtailed, hourly, throughout the weekly period.  The IESO does not.
• Supply Mix information.

The weekly reporting can be accessed by selecting the "NEW: Weekly Report" tab, beside the "Home" tab on this site. 

A Sober look at Ontario’s 2011 Electricity Figures

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts...for support rather than illumination."
                                    -Andrew Lang (1844-1912) Scottish poet, novelist and literary critic

Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) issued a news release on January 6th titled,“Composition of Ontario’s Electricity Supply Mix Continues to Change: Consumer Response Supports Reliability.” The introduction posits there were three trends highlighted in the data; “increasing production from renewable resources, reduced dependence on coal-fired units, and a more active role for consumers in managing their consumption.”   Not exactly the 3 trends I'd look for

• The 'customers' most active in curtailing peak demand are businesses, as Parker Gallant and I demonstrated in a recent article. Many of them pitch in by closing up altogether;
• Use of coal-fired generation is reduced because the periods we need it are down, but at peak demand we relied on coal-fired generation (I wrote on that here);
• There is no trend to increasing production from renewables in the IESO data.

There is a brief uptick. From only the data presented by the IESO, summing up hydro and wind the numbers go from 39.7 TWh in 2008 to 40.4TWh in 2009, 33.5TWh in 2010, and then we have a singular point as an uptick in 2011, to 37.2TWh. While up on a dry 2010, the total renewables figure is unimpressive against a longer trend. In the past 22 years, renewables have infrequently produced less output than in 2011.

My Pledge Suggestions

I subscribed to a e-mail from the Ontario Power Authority, which sent out some power saving tips for the 'festive season.'  As the owner of an old home (1907), here's a review of the their 'tips for the festive season"

• Replace old, incandescent holiday lights with LED lights. LEDs run much cooler, have lasting power and are energy efficient.
Depending on how many 10's of thousand of $s you have spent on upgrading your building envelope, be careful not to freeze to death by buying $30 lightbulbs because you don't realize the heat coming from the $1 lightbulb isn't doing much harm at all.

• Turn off outdoor holiday lighting before bed or use a timer to automatically turn them off when you go to sleep.

Put all your outdoor holiday lighting inside (see previous point)

New Year, Same Stories, Old Professions

 Goodbye 2011.

This blog was new as 2010 turned to 2011. My first post of 2011 noted huge exports in December of 2010, negative pricing records for January 1, 2011, and record wind production in hour 21 of January 1st. It took about a week before the first reporter picked up on the subsidized exports story, which generated some interest in the mainstream media (MSM). Remarkably, in hour 18 of January 1st, 2012, wind would again set a production record (1633MW).

Comparing the immediately available data for New Years' Day 2012 to the 2011 data, we see why the price disaster of 2011 was curtailed, to only intermittent periods of negative pricing, this year.

Nuclear was idled: one unit at Darlington just for this weekend (we'll see if they get it back up for tomorrow's deep freeze), and one at Pickering they seem to have decided not to bother with this season (a Bruce A unit is also offline for a fairly substantial project).

Net Imports are only up compared to last year: 1/1/2012 we were still a net exporter - of over 1000MW/hour

Ontario Electricity Act Being Re-Written - and Other Thoughts for Santa

I stumbled across something yesterday that jolted me away from Christmas planning.  I've not posted much this month as I've been suffering from writer's block in attempting to write Santa my list.  I don't wish  for stuff anymore - I generally mix up the old gift holiday with my murky religious philosophy. It's a season where a muddled mind is unavoidable - so I usually hope for wisdom.
For others
What attribute should I wish for this year?

I was thinking about this when I saw the CBC's Mike Crawley tweet:

At 4pm on Fri before Xmas, McGuinty govt announces proposed changes to how it reports on hydro debt retirement http://bit.ly/uzexC3 #sl

Kyoto a no-go: Canada exits

There's a lot of press, and commentary, on Canada's long-anticipated withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol.
I've visited the International Energy Agency (IEA) site to grab a spreadsheet of CO2 Emissions from fuel combustion (the bulk of emissions), and done a couple of brief calculations to develop illustrations of why Canada exited Kyoto, and when we fell behind on our targets.

The Kyoto Protocol was signed in December of 1997.  It set a base year of 1990 - some would say because of the skill of negotiators from countries that didn't have growing GHG emission between 1990 and December 1997.  Especially countries with recovering eastern bloc ecosystems.

Secret Deals between Public Power in Ontario and Quebec

There have long been suspicions that Ontario has been dumping hydroelectric production.    Earlier this year a report  indicated Americans were generating power with the Ontario water allocation we were unable to use.  As the year progressed and water levels of the great lakes remained well above 2010 levels, it became apparent that Ontario’s hydro levels were producing at new lows as the year progressed.  I reviewed generation figures by site for September, and noted a big drop in the output from the unregulated segment of the Ontario Power Generation (OPG)  Ottawa/St. Lawrence Plant Group .  I made inquiries as to whether the water sharing agreements from the Niagara River were mirrored for rivers shared with Quebec at the time, which went unanswered.  Now I believe I’ve stumbled upon the proof that we have agreements with Quebec resulting in exports, and generation, that are not being reported.