Communication, Politics, Money: Wynne's electricity/electoral strategy

The Premier of Ontario launched a campaign advertising her concern about the impact of high electricity rates in proroguing the legislature, which allowed for a New Speech from the Throne setting government priorities. The speech announced a new policy for residential electricity consumers, re-implementing an old policy but providing an excuse to discuss the communication strategies impacting the electricity narrative in Ontario - among the political parties, and allegedly public servants.

A brief reverse timeline on tax policies and electricity in Ontario:

• September 12, 2016 the Wynne government announces the provincial portion of the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) will be rebated on residential and small business consumer bills as of January 1, 2017;
• January 1, 2015 the Wynne government removes the Ontario Clean Energy Benefit (OCEB) that deducted 10% of residential electricity bills
• January 1, 2011 the McGuinty government (same party) introduced the OCEB
• July 1, 2010 the McGuinty government adds 8% to residential electricity bills when the Provincial and Federal sales taxes are harmonized as the HST

Let's not pretend that today's announcement is creative or terribly meaningful, but uncover the limitations that prevent the Premier from doing something meaningful to control costs - or allow her to let rates rise higher.

David Herle is an influential political strategist notable for co-chairing the Premier's successful 2014 election campaign. In February (2016) Mr. Hearle delivered a presentation to the Canadian Nuclear Association (CNA). The first point Mr. Hearle had on his slides was:

Rates are an increasingly major concern in Ontario. The cost of electricity is not just seen to be unreasonably high, it is widely seen as damaging to the provincial economy. 

• Slowing rate increases is critical. 
• Electricity is a necessity not a luxury.

A conservative strategist, Nick Kouvalis delivered a similar presentation to the Ontario Energy Association in the fall of 2015. That presentation also showed survey results indicating economy and jobs topped concerns, with energy prices not far behind.

Mr. Hearle noted some characteristics of public opinion that now drive Ontario Liberal Party public speaking on electricity. People like:

• the elimination of coal
• improved reliability
• conservation
• renewable energy (many remain positive on industrial wind - and most on solar)

Hearle, it seems to me, indicates a communication strategy that recognizes people don't want to blame cost hikes on things they like, and therefore Liberal policy is to challenge people to associate increased rates to the achievement of outcomes they desired - specifically coal's elimination in the generation of electricity, and alleged improvement to system reliability.1

New Year, Same Stories, Old Professions

 Goodbye 2011.

This blog was new as 2010 turned to 2011. My first post of 2011 noted huge exports in December of 2010, negative pricing records for January 1, 2011, and record wind production in hour 21 of January 1st. It took about a week before the first reporter picked up on the subsidized exports story, which generated some interest in the mainstream media (MSM). Remarkably, in hour 18 of January 1st, 2012, wind would again set a production record (1633MW).

Comparing the immediately available data for New Years' Day 2012 to the 2011 data, we see why the price disaster of 2011 was curtailed, to only intermittent periods of negative pricing, this year.

Nuclear was idled: one unit at Darlington just for this weekend (we'll see if they get it back up for tomorrow's deep freeze), and one at Pickering they seem to have decided not to bother with this season (a Bruce A unit is also offline for a fairly substantial project).

Net Imports are only up compared to last year: 1/1/2012 we were still a net exporter - of over 1000MW/hour

Parkinson's Law and the Innumerate Mr. Miller

Elements of Parkinson's Law:

• Work Expands so as to fill the time available for its completion
• An official wants to multiply subordinates, not rivals
• Officials make work for each other.

Gord Miller was in the press yesterday, a lot, following the release of Managing a Complex Energy System: Annual Energy conservation Progress Report -2010 (Volume One), with most of the attention going to his description of the Ontario Clean Energy Benefit (OCEB) as “a perverse incentive that undermines conservation efforts.” Mr. Miller's report continued “One estimate of its effect is to increase overall electricity consumption by more than one per cent. This would negate about one-third of the savings that conservation programs are expected to provide between 2011 and 2014.” I'll return to Mr. Miller's interesting use of statistics shortly, but first ...

As Japan Copes, Cynical Opportunists Thrive

I haven’t written a blog entry since the earthquake and tsunami rocked Japan.   I switched on the television that day and the video coming in turned my stomach as I recalled the initial reporting on the quake, and tsunami, in the Indian Ocean.   The situation has unfolded, now as then, with the extent of the massive devastation being unveiled slowly.  I have 3 sons in the house and I discussed it with them as we watched the footage – attempting to empathize.  It’s a tough thing to do. Their uncle, out on Gabriola Island, would be a better person to ask about living on the shores of an area prone to earthquakes, and susceptible to a tsunami – or their newer uncle who had lived at the base of an active volcano for some time.  People live in danger’s path.  We also discussed engineering, with my little knowledge of it, including redundancy, passive safety features, and the law of diminishing returns.  And I opined the active in this world usually work in the realm of probability, lacking the certainty, and paralysis, of absolutes.

The first reports of nuclear trouble that raised my eyebrows involved Japan declaring emergencies at 5 reactors, and that they may not have pumps to cool the reactors.