Thursday, January 30, 2020

Ontario electricity demands - an appendix.

Last week Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) released its first Annual Planning Outlook (APO), which is pertinent to the next article I wanted to write. This isn't that article - it's an explanation of graphics I created for the article I want to write.

While the APO the first of the new thing, it's just the latest in a line of forecasts intended to guide electricity planning in the province. This graphic shows 5 previous forecasts, but I felt I should explain their origins, and note they may not be strictly comparable. "Demand" is, in Ontario, a word that is, by itself, not very definitive.

Tuesday, January 7, 2020

Review of Annual Ontario Electricity Data

It's that time of year. This will be the tenth time I've produced a post on year-end electricity data. In my first such post I quoted the IESO's release on data for 2010:
"The cost of power in 2010 was 6.52 cents per kilowatt hour (kWh), as compared to 6.22 cents/kWh in 2009. This cost includes the average weighted wholesale market price of 3.79 cents/kWh and the average Global Adjustment of 2.73 cents/kWh (preliminary)."
It's a little higher than that this year. A similar sentence for 2019:
The [class B] cost of power in 2019 was 12.63 cents per kilowatt hour (kWh), as compared to 11.51 cents/kWh in 2018. This cost includes the average weighted wholesale market price of 1.8 cents/kWh and the average Global Adjustment of 10.8 cents/kWh (preliminary).
The prices aren't strictly comparable for two reasons, but for most consumers the difference will still be significant.
The numbers are nominal, but there was little inflation in Ontario over the decade (approx. 18%, and 1.85% in 2019) so the real "cost of power increase" for most consumers was still 65% over the decade, and 7.8% last year, which means last year was worse than average!
The "class B" distinction is necessary as two - or three - distinct consumer classes were created over the past 10 years.

I'll look at three distinct areas of supply: the reported generation figures on the IESO-controlled grid (ICG), distributed generation, and curtailed generation (which is supply Ontarians will pay for but was not accepted onto the ICG). I'll look at costs by the fuel, or supply type, as the IESO reports for generation. I'll look at "the cost of power" by consumer groupings, and provide an average cost of power. Most of these figures are estimated, and even figures produced by the IESO will often differ from one another due to minor differences in the origin of the data.
I will not generally try to reconcile my estimates to figures reported by the IESO due to limiting my time - and not agreeing with the IESO on discrepancies I've found in the past. Please interpret numbers as illustrative, and not gospel. This should be particularly obvious for cost break-downs which are not available anywhere else: most contracts are private and rates are estimated as best I can. I will briefly discuss the IESO's monthly global adjustment component cost file, which is one place you could find some confidence in the quality of my estimates, and/or their accounting.

I'll try to maintain a focus on providing a basis for analyzing opportunities to reducing the cost of electricity in Ontario in preparation on a future post on impediments to cutting costs.

A first metric for those who see little opportunity for cost cuts:

The average price paid to a supplier for a single megawatt-hour (MWh) was less than $94 (or 9.4 cents per kilowatt-hour), 35% below the average rate paid by Class B ratepayers. 

Now for the many numbers needed to make that conclusion.

View these estimates with Google Sheets