Ontario Electricity Rate set to rise 30% in August

The total commodity charge for electricity is now estimated to be up 30% from August 2012 to August 2013.

The weighted average market rate (the HOEP) will be around $23.55/MWh and the freshly released 2nd stimate of the global adjustment rate is $68.99/MWh; the combined "Class B" commodity charge of $92.54 is 30% higher than 2012's $71.09.

August's 30% follows 3 months with inflation over 20% (as Parker Gallant and I noted here), so it does not come as a surprise to me, but it appears to come as a huge surprise to the market operator (the IESO).

I put together a short 2 question survey after seeing the initial IESO initial global adjustment estimate for August:

The IESO posted a preliminary estimate for the August Global Adjustment of $40.13/MWh. Do you think this estimate is:

• plausible
• remotely possible
• indicative of a healthy optimism
• indicative of politically directed lowballing prior to the August by-elections
• indicative of incompetence

The few responding were split between "incompetence" and "politically directed lowballing"

The second question was:

Do you think the estimate, assuming it is meant to be of the Class B global adjustment, will be:

• high
• about right
• 10-25% low
• 25-40% low 
• 40-60% low
• more than 60% low

All answers rightly identified the $40 estimate as being far too low, and the most popular answer was "40-60% low."

The second estimate of the global adjustment rate ($68.99/MWh) is, in fact, 70% higher than the first estimate ($40.13/MWh); statistically that means the first estimate is 42% lower.

Perhaps the IESO saw the survey and decided they best up the next estimate to establish something akin to credibility; it's crud ability set September's estimate at 8.72 cents/kWh (or $87.20/MWh) - that's 18% above September 2012's combined HOEP (market) and global adjustment.

How high do you think $87.20 is going to be?