Monday, June 4, 2012

Estimating Costs in Ontario's Electricity Sector

I haven't posted lately as I've revisited data to provide improved estimates of a number of entities in Ontario's electricity system.  I've tried to do so in a manner that can be easily updated, and written some descriptions of the process, in a lengthy entry at my data site (users with slow connections are warned).   Since I've put the time in building the data structure to support posts, I'll grab some of the data to illustrate the types of figures that can be produced, albeit as estimations with imperfect data, depended on a number of assumptions.

The cost of supply is broken down based on known information on contracts with suppliers.  Some of these contracts pay for capacity (Cpcty) in different formats. The average pricing for 2011 is shown below.  Also shown is graphing of each 'fuel' generation type as a percentage of supply, and of cost (if it's cost share is greater than the share of generation, it's more expensive than average)


Fuel Rate_Output Rate_Cpcty
Nuclear $57.05 $0.00
Hydro $36.47 $0.00
Gas $63.58 $24.44
Coal $37.66 $75.27
Imports $36.23 $0.00
Wind $135.00 $0.00
Other $115.77 $112.82
Solar $500.00 $0.00
Unknown $28.40 $0.00
TOTAL $55.85 $6.41





I worked the data to estimate the net contribution of each generator to the global adjustment.  By "net" I mean the difference between what the end consumer pays for the generator's output, and what the generator receives.  In a world of perfect data, this method would balance to $0.


$Millions Wind Solar Conservation Other Gas Coal Nuclear Imports Hydro
2012 05 -$19 -$24 -$27 -$17 -$45 -$17 $79 $19 $103
2012 04 -$29 -$22 -$26 -$17 -$27 -$19 $63 $23 $107
2012 03 -$35 -$22 -$27 -$18 -$45 -$14 $81 $14 $108
2012 02 -$32 -$17 -$25 -$17 -$23 -$7 $61 $9 $96
2012 01 -$42 -$14 -$27 -$19 -$29 -$14 $47 $8 $84
2011 12 -$32 -$9 -$27 -$18 -$39 -$15 $86 $8 $94
2011 11 -$38 -$9 -$26 -$17 -$35 -$14 $62 $9 $80
2011 10 -$23 -$14 -$27 -$17 -$38 -$22 $71 $9 $72
2011 09 -$17 -$16 -$26 -$15 -$36 -$19 $55 $11 $59
2011 08 -$12 -$17 -$27 -$18 -$41 -$14 $69 $13 $66
2011 07 -$10 -$15 -$27 -$19 -$40 $2 $50 $14 $70
2011 06 -$14 -$14 -$26 -$17 -$42 -$22 $75 $7 $97
2011 05 -$20 -$14 -$27 -$18 -$47 -$24 $58 $8 $108
2011 04 -$28 -$12 -$26 -$18 -$51 -$22 $63 $10 $90
2011 03 -$23 -$11 -$27 -$19 -$47 -$18 $47 $9 $82
2011 02 -$31 -$8 -$25 -$17 -$33 -$15 $48 $9 $75
2011 01 -$19 -$6 -$27 -$19 -$40 -$12 $62 $10 $84
2010 12 -$27 -$4 -$27 -$19 -$56 -$12 $46 $11 $76
2010 11 -$24 -$4 -$26 -$18 -$48 -$13 $43 $13 $68
2010 10 -$19 -$5 -$27 -$18 -$49 -$22 $62 $16 $79
2010 09 -$20 -$5 -$26 -$18 -$50 -$17 $13 $18 $50


Aside from working on figures to show the relative costs of each supply, I also indicate a breakdown of costs comprising the Class B commodity charges that most bills in Ontario are based on - the exception being the large Class A customers.
The breakdown includes the cost of the OPA's consevation programs, the addtional burden on Class B customers creating by the creation of the Class A category, and the cost added by selling exports cheaply.



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