At the End of The IESO 18-Month Outlook: Updated

In a previous post I noted the final paragraph of the previous 4 18-month outlooks from the Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO).  Here I add final sections of the 2 outlooks released since that post.
Nothing has changed: the current outlook notes ~3000MW of capacity to come online, none of which shares the 'flexibility' attributes of the coal Ontario is committed to replacing - despite not coherently planning to meet that commitment.

September 2012 - February 2014

...With the forecast increase in SBG, we foresee an increase in out-of-market control actions, such as minimum hydro dispatch and nuclear maneuvers, to be required in order to manage the surplus, extending beyond the typical market action of exports. With wind and solar becoming more prominent resources on the electricity system, the need for maximum flexibility from all resources becomes integral for the reliable and efficient operation of the grid. When variable generation becomes dispatchable, additional flexibility will be available to diminish the frequency of out-of market control actions for SBG.

The existing coal fleet, though running at vastly reduced levels from previous years, provides the IESO with desirable flexibility, such as quick ramping and operating reserve, under all market conditions. As Ontario’s coal-fired generation is shut down over the next two years, its associated flexibility will be lost. Therefore, future capacity additions should also possess this flexibility to help facilitate the management of maintenance outages, provide effective ramp capability, supply of operating reserve and even provide regulation when necessary.

June 2012 - November 2013

graphic from IESO report

One of the greatest variations seen in the first quarter of 2012 from last year is a decrease in imports. This difference was due to lower demands and prices, caused by a mild winter and record-breaking high temperatures in March.
Another large variation was in the frequency and energy volume of manual actions, such as nuclear unit maneuvers or import transaction curtailments, for surplus baseload generation conditions. In Q1 2012, there were 73 GWh of curtailments versus 32 GWh in Q1 of 2011. The rise in manual action is a result of lower minimum demands as well as a growing portfolio of baseload generation.  The ability to dispatch renewable resources may help mitigate the need for these actions moving forward.

March 2012- August 2013

The retirement of two Nanticoke units during the past quarter not only removed 980 MW of installed capacity from our system but also removed the associated flexibility. The existing coal fleet, though running at vastly reduced levels from previous years, provides the IESO with desirable flexibility, under all operating conditions, from low load SBG to high peak periods. Units with flexible dispatch facilitate the management of maintenance outages, provide effective ramp capability and can even provide regulation, when necessary. These characteristics are important and are desired in new capacity. With the changes to gas‐fired generation projects in the GTA, and until the future of the Pickering Nuclear station is determined, decisions must be made over the next 18 months to ensure adequate supply beyond the middle of the decade.

December 2011 – May 2013

The other large variation seen from the previous year was the frequency by which a nuclear unit had to be either maneuvered or shut down. So far in 2011, nuclear units have been maneuvered 113 times for a total of 364 hours. Compared to 2010 which had nuclear units maneuvered 14 times for a total duration of 64 hours, this represents a significant increase. This rise in manual action is a result of a lower minimum demands as well as a growing portfolio of inflexible generation. The ability to dispatch renewable resources may help to mitigate the need for these actions moving forward

September 2011 – February 2013

Ontario can expect periods of SBG similar to 2009 and 2010, with a brief reprieve during the higher demand winter months, followed by a re‐appearance in spring 2012. During these periods of SBG, , beyond typical market actions such as exports, minimum hydro dispatch and nuclear manoeuvers, some out of market control actions are expected to be required in order to manage the surplus condition.

June2011 – November 2012

The biggest variation from the previous year is that in 2010 we saw lower hydroelectric production during the summer months. The major factor that contributed to this variation is the decrease in precipitation levels from previous years. We also saw an increase in wind capacity during the early months of 2011.

The things the IESO notes as requiring attention aren't the things we hear about.

As drones continue stupidly repeating,  "Ontario is replacing dirty, coal-fired plants with cleaner sources of power like wind," the system flexibility is being lost as gas plants that can act 'like' coal are ignored and sources that aren't "flexible" - sources unlike coal - are recklessly pursued.