Friday, March 30, 2012

Week 12 Reporting: March GA Prediction

I have updated the weekly reporting to show the week of March 21 - March 27.

The news is in Hour 21(9pm) of Monday the 26th, which saw Ontario importing more electricity than it was exporting.  That's the first hour of 2012 that we have been a net importer.

Demand was down from last year (by about 1900MW per hour!), negative pricing occurred frequently, and steam bypass at Bruce B units not only occurred, but was sustained for days.

The IESO is likely to post the 2nd estimate of the Global Adjustment for March on Monday.  The first estimate was $49.50/MWh, but with the HOEP down to $15.41, the plants we pay for capacity (CCGT) running at under 15% capacity factors for the month, the curtailment of non-utility generators one weekend, idling of nuclear units in addition to steaming off production .. I'll estimate it at $58.
I don't account for all those factors in the spreadsheet I estimate with - but here is the stats part of the estimate:

MW $/MWh Expense
Nuclear 6,403,369 57.5 $368,193,718
Hydro 2,894,774 37 $107,106,638
Wind 502,058 135 $67,777,830
Gas 1,458,987 100 $145,898,700
Coal 294,899 35 $10,321,465
Other 95,405 600 $57,243,000
Solar 0 600 $0
Imports 245,867 $15.41 $3,788,168
Total 11,895,359 $63.92 $760,329,518


MWh $/MWh Recovered Not Recovered
Ontario 10,758,751 $15.41 $165,764,233 $521,915,388
Exported 1,136,608 $15.41 $17,512,159 $55,137,739

$183,276,392 $577,053,127

GA Est $53.64

GA With $30M $56.42


  1. Hi there, I check your blog daily. Your writing style is awesome, keep up the good work!

    my website :: walking calculator

  2. Pretty great post. I simply stumbled upon your blog and wished to mention
    that I have truly enjoyed surfing around your weblog posts.
    After all I will be subscribing in your feed and I hope you write
    once more soon!

    My blog:

  3. Hi excellent website! Does running a blog like this require a
    large amount of work? I have virtually no expertise in coding but
    I had been hoping to start my own blog in the near future.
    Anyways, if you have any ideas or techniques for new blog owners please share.
    I know this is off topic but I simply had to ask.
    Thanks a lot!

    Also visit my web blog :: flying Airplane Games

  4. It's hard to come by well-informed people on this subject, however, you seem like you know what you're talking
    about! Thanks

    Here is my blog ... More Signup bonuses

  5. It's amazing to visit this web page and reading the views of all mates on the topic of this article, while I am also eager of getting know-how.

    Here is my page Watch this teenage girl describe her job as a chat host

  6. Right here is the right site for anybody who wishes to understand this topic.
    You know so much its almost tough to argue with you (not that I really will need to…HaHa).
    You definitely put a fresh spin on a subject which has been written
    about for decades. Excellent stuff, just great!

    Look at my web site dig this