Friday, March 30, 2012

Week 12 Reporting: March GA Prediction

I have updated the weekly reporting to show the week of March 21 - March 27.

The news is in Hour 21(9pm) of Monday the 26th, which saw Ontario importing more electricity than it was exporting.  That's the first hour of 2012 that we have been a net importer.

Demand was down from last year (by about 1900MW per hour!), negative pricing occurred frequently, and steam bypass at Bruce B units not only occurred, but was sustained for days.



The IESO is likely to post the 2nd estimate of the Global Adjustment for March on Monday.  The first estimate was $49.50/MWh, but with the HOEP down to $15.41, the plants we pay for capacity (CCGT) running at under 15% capacity factors for the month, the curtailment of non-utility generators one weekend, idling of nuclear units in addition to steaming off production .. I'll estimate it at $58.
I don't account for all those factors in the spreadsheet I estimate with - but here is the stats part of the estimate:


MW $/MWh Expense
Nuclear 6,403,369 57.5 $368,193,718
Hydro 2,894,774 37 $107,106,638
Wind 502,058 135 $67,777,830
Gas 1,458,987 100 $145,898,700
Coal 294,899 35 $10,321,465
Other 95,405 600 $57,243,000
Solar 0 600 $0
Imports 245,867 $15.41 $3,788,168
Total 11,895,359 $63.92 $760,329,518



$61.64






MWh $/MWh Recovered Not Recovered
Ontario 10,758,751 $15.41 $165,764,233 $521,915,388
Exported 1,136,608 $15.41 $17,512,159 $55,137,739

11,895,359
$183,276,392 $577,053,127



GA Est $53.64



GA With $30M $56.42

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