The new report is from me, and it is to provide consumers, and other critics, with a more intelligent summary than the little noticed "Daily Market Summary" produced by the province's system operator (IESO). I hope some readers will work through the additional numbers as they can demonstrate the broad themes driving pricing in Ontario - and if some that do the work join a chorus calling for some transparency and meaningful reporting from the IESO, my work in creating the reporting will be somewhat justified.
If one were to have no other information than the IESO Daily Market Summary reports for November 10th, and 12th, they'd think a little less demand - 187 megawatt-hours (MWh) - resulted in the price dropping $27.59/MWh to essentially free.
Ontario's demand for electricity did not change. The IESO's "demand" is not Ontario's consumption, but the demand for supply from generators in the IESO's market.
There are qualitative issues with the IESO report.
The HOEP price is the Hourly Ontario Energy Price. The weighted average is arrived at using hourly "Ontario Demand" and hourly HOEP - if one wanted to competently establish the "Value of Market Demand" they would not do it as the IESO does in this report. The weighted average price of exports has always been different, but since the IESO prohibited negative-priced exports the difference can be enormous.
Beyond the qualitative issues with the IESO's report is the absence of any attempt at costing the procured supply (their "demand"). With the global adjustment mechanism driving prices, this renders the report essentially worthless