Saturday, September 1, 2012

Better Ontario Electricity Estimates For August

The IESO has posted updated estimates for August's Global Adjustment.
As with July, the 2nd preliminary estimates are unlikely to provide good guidance on the final figures due in a couple of weeks.
The posted 2nd estimate for August 2012

Unlike July, August's mistake appears to me to be a typo, with 38.94 ($/MWh) being entered as 28.94.

July's big discrepancy was in the total pool of money.  A $599 million estimate was reduced to $421.7 million in the final charges.  The reason for the discrepancy being the costs of cancellation of a gas plant in Mississauga, promised during the previous election campaign.  Ontario's Finance Minister noted the costs of cancelling that plant would hit neither electricity rate payers nor tax payers due to the existence of a magical contingency fund (adjective added), but perhaps he did so only in the the proper Liberal government channel (The Toronto Star) without notification of the bureaucracy.

The average market price, or HOEP, for August 2012 was approximately $29.31.  If the estimated GA is correct, the Class B customer price would be $58.25, the lowest price since April 2009.

I suggest counting on $68.25/MWh as a basis for the bills of those not on the regulated price plan (RPP).  This remains far below the regulated rates as the average RPP customer pays over $80/MWh.  The RPP rates are set by the Ontario Energy Board based on estimates from Navigant Consulting.  Navigant has become a favourite source of studies for the American wind industry, and actively promotes services for the solar industry.  Both seem like lovely new businesses, but might explain a lack of attention to updating the old RPP templates, explaining why the summer 2012 estimates are performing so poorly.

August 2012 consumption was up slightly over August 2011.
My data estimates of rates are here (and preliminary monthly report here) - some queries use the IESO's 2nd estimate, so the calculations using the GA rate will be off.  As usual hydro and nuclear, primarily public, receive low prices so as to pay higher rates for, in order of impact to your bill for August, natural gas, conservation, solar and wind.

Wind is particularly low the past 2 months due to the fact it produces very little in the summer months.  Total wind production was up over July, but Dillon, Gosfield, Port Alma (both 1 and 2), and Spence wind generators all saw their least productive months (in terms of capacity factor).

28 comments:

  1. Perfect posting on the subject of dollar car rental lax airport address!
    I seriously enjoy how easy the design and style appears for my eyes
    and how efficiently the details is delivered. I am curious how I could be informed anytime a
    brand new post has been produced. I have registered your RSS that needs to have the needed results!
    Have a great day!

    My webpage; tenerife car hire

    ReplyDelete
  2. Good day very cool web site!! Guy .. Excellent .
    . Wonderful .. I will bookmark your website and take the feeds additionally?
    I am satisfied to seek out so many useful info here
    within the submit, we want work out extra strategies on this regard, thanks for sharing.
    . . . . .

    Review my blog airplane games

    ReplyDelete
  3. It's amazing to pay a visit this site and reading the views of all mates about this piece of writing, while I am also eager of getting familiarity.

    Feel free to surf to my homepage - airplane simulator games

    ReplyDelete
  4. Fantastic items from you, man. I have take into account your
    stuff previous to and you're simply too fantastic. I actually like what you have obtained right here, certainly like what you are saying and the way in which by which you assert it. You're making it entertaining and you still care for
    to stay it sensible. I can't wait to learn far more from you. This is really a tremendous web site.

    Look into my web site ... best flight simulator for pc

    ReplyDelete
  5. I'm keen on the valuable facts on cheap car hire londonderry airport you provide in your posts. I’ll take a note of your website and check again here routinely. I'm quite sure I will discover
    lots of new things here! Best of luck for one more!

    My web blog ... Lanzarote Car Rental

    ReplyDelete
  6. You can certainly observe the passion upon luxury car rental las vegas nevada in the work
    you create. The entire world hopes for more passionate people as you which aren't worried to state how they believe. Always go after your heart.

    Look into my web page; car hire bilbao

    ReplyDelete
  7. It's really a decent and worthwhile piece of facts regarding car rentals san francisco airport ca. I am grateful that you provided this beneficial knowledge. Kindly keep us updated in this way. Bless you for sharing.

    Here is my webpage Car Hire Alicante

    ReplyDelete
  8. Usually I do not review content on web blogs, however
    I would like to point out that this particular write-up compelled me to check out to do now!

    Your publishing style happens to be wonderful. Thank you, rather decent post on dollar thrifty rental car tahlequah.


    Stop by my web blog :: car rentals tenerife

    ReplyDelete
  9. My hubby Wilhemina and I came here simply because this specific webpage had been tweeted by a lady I had been following and I
    am happy I got here.

    my webpage - Rent car barcelona

    ReplyDelete
  10. I think this is among the most significant insight on car rental business plan in india for
    me and I'm pleased I read your posting, but want to comment on few general things, The website look is perfect and the posts are really excellent : D. Decent job. Cheers

    my homepage Car Hire In Lanzarote

    ReplyDelete
  11. Fantastic article, really enlightening. I question why others
    specialists in this area don't see this. You should carry on your publishing. I'm sure, you have
    a huge audience shortly!

    Check out my web page: Mallorca Rentals

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hi, very nice article regarding dollar car rental lax los angeles!

    ! Boy, excellent and also fascinating. I am going to save the web site
    and subscribe to the feed as well. I'm grateful to locate so many important details in the blog post. We need to establish a lot more techniques in connection with this. Thank you for writing.

    Also visit my web blog; Car Hire At Malaga Airport

    ReplyDelete
  13. I am extremely pleased with your way with words-at all as well as with the design of your weblog.

    Is this a premium design or did you customize it
    on your own? Anyway continue the excellent quality posting,
    it's rare to see a pleasant blog like this today.

    Also visit my homepage :: Car Hire Lanzarote

    ReplyDelete
  14. Thanks a lot for your helpful info. Me and my pal
    Robyn are just getting set to do some studies concerning budget
    car hire coupons uk. We got to find a guide from the local archive
    although I do think I have uncovered more with this blog post.
    I am extremely happy to find this wonderful info being provided
    completely free out there.

    Visit my site ... car rental bilbao

    ReplyDelete
  15. I went here just because I spotted a twitter update of Candra about car rental deals los angeles airport making reference to this
    blog and I am happy I made it here.

    Here is my page: Car Rental Lanzarote

    ReplyDelete
  16. Hi there, I am on this page for the first time. I discovered
    the url on a board discussing cheap car rental uk one way and I believe it is actually valuable
    and it also helped me much. I'm hoping to give something in return and aid others just like you served me.

    Feel free to visit my website: Torrevieja Car Rental

    ReplyDelete
  17. Wherever you got this facts from, I'm unclear, however, you used that to produce a perfect blog post on the subject of tempest car hire king shaka airport. To understand it even better, I want to spend a while learning more about it. I had been trying to find this information to work with it as part of a project, thank you so much for this excellent tips.

    Feel free to surf to my homepage - Car Rental Lanzarote

    ReplyDelete
  18. I do go along with all the thoughts on budget car rental sandton contact details you've provided in the article. They are extremely convincing and will certainly get the job done. However, the articles are too short for starters. Could you please extend them a little from the next time? Anyway, thanks for the post.

    Visit my website: http://www.nalltco.org/posts/car-hire-in-alicante-one-of-the-eldest-towns-in-spain/

    ReplyDelete
  19. Hey there, you used to post magnificent, however the last few articles have been a little monotonous.

    I miss your very own remarkable writing. Recent few postings are a little bit out of track!

    Come on!

    Also visit my site Rental Cars In Spain

    ReplyDelete
  20. Hey there, extremely nice posting regarding car rental compare spain!
    ! Boy, good and incredible. I am going to bookmark your blog and subscribe to the feed
    also. I'm grateful to obtain lots of important details in the article. We will need to develop more techniques in connection with this. Many thanks for sharing.

    Look at my site :: Car Hire At Malaga Airport

    ReplyDelete
  21. Bless you for sharing this excellent information upon vintage
    car rental northern california. Your page is so cool. I'm amazed of the details of the website. This exposes how clearly you are certain of the topic. I bookmarked this website page and will return to receive more content. You rock! I found exactly the info I previously researched all over and just couldn't
    come across. What a great site.

    My blog Car Rental Lanzarote

    ReplyDelete
  22. F*ckin’ remarkable aspects above. I am really grateful to read
    your information regarding car rental in kenya nairobi. Thanks a lot and I am looking
    forward getting in contact with you. Would you
    remember to drop me a mail?

    Here is my web site :: car hire bilbao

    ReplyDelete
  23. I really like the post about cheapest car hire avalon airport.
    I've been searching in all places for this! Thanks god I found the link on Bing. You've made my
    day! Thx once more.

    Feel free to visit my homepage ... Car rentals Tenerife

    ReplyDelete
  24. I was seeking tips about car rental 21 years uk for quite a
    while. After many hours of looking in Yahoo, at last I
    noticed what I was looking for in your blog.

    I ask myself what's the lack of the search engines approach that they do not rise this kind of informative websites above the list. Oftentimes the top web sites are filled with nonsense.

    Here is my web blog - www.esymo.com/travel-and-vacations/making-your-way-to-costa-blanca-spain/

    ReplyDelete
  25. Heya, I believe that I saw you went to my page so I came to "return the favor".
    I'm looking to discover things to boost my website! I think it's fine to work with a few of
    your ideas on enterprise car rental coupon codes canada 2013!
    !

    Also visit my blog ... Car rental In malaga

    ReplyDelete
  26. Great work on the subject of usaa car rental code hertz!
    This is the type of information that need to be featured across
    the net. Shame on the search engines for not ranking the post higher!

    Thanks =)

    Feel free to surf to my web-site; Car Rental Comparison

    ReplyDelete
  27. Thank you for your helpful details. Me and my friend Edward are getting set
    to do some analysis regarding car rental laws in new york
    state. We have to buy a book from the community archive however
    I think I have discovered more from this posting.
    I'm extremely thrilled to find such quality insight actually distributed freely out there.

    my web site; Malagacarhire

    ReplyDelete
  28. Yo, extremely cool information on the subject of car rental calgary canada airport!
    ! Boy, excellent and eye-popping. I am going
    to bookmark your blog and sign up for the feed as well.

    I'm excited to find a lot of important details here in the blog post. We have to establish way more methods in this regard. Thank you for posting.

    Review my homepage :: Car Hire Mallorca

    ReplyDelete