Tuesday, November 1, 2011

October Stats: Preliminary Ontario Electricity Figures

A quick overview of some statistics, for October 2011, along with some views of the data not included in the IESO monthly reporting.   I offer these only as my own calculations based on freely available data from the IESO site.   
Mistakes may be my own - some minor variances are expected as the IESO daily figures currently available lack the full detail of the weekly data updates which will not be posted for some days yet.
The HOEP rate for October will end up down around $29.38/MWh, but the 2nd revision of the Global Adjustment, pushes the wholesale rate up to $74.97.  YTD, Ontario demand is almost identical to the first 10 months of 2010, the HOEP is down over 16%, while the GA has climbed over 51%.  Neither markets, nor demands, are causing the rate inflation.

The lack of differentiation between peak, and off peak, pricing, continued in October.

             For The Month On-Peak Mid-Peak Off-Peak
Average $29.38 $32.13 $33.39 $26.22
Maximum $88.88 $72.43 $81.35 $88.88
Minimum -$128.10 $24.66 $13.94 -$128.10

Ontario Demand average will be slightly above 14,775MW/h, with a minimum demand of 11,124MW and a maximum around 18,234MW.  Total Ontario demand will be slightly above 10,992,764MWh.  Supply is down slightly from October 2010, and remained less than 2% up October 2009.

Hydro production failed to improve, despite water levels above 2010's depths, in the lower great lakes.

Imports averaged 319MW/h while exports average 1378MW/h – the net export averaging approximately 1059MW each hour.

The 2nd estimate of the Global Adjustment is  $45.59, which combines with the weighted average HOEP rate of $29.38 to provide a wholesale market commodity charge of $74.97/MWh.  This compares to the rate of $70.52/MWh in October 2010 – a 6.3% increase.

12-month running averages have stabilized on demand, and supply is dropping, but this appears due to reduced hydroelectric generation.   The HOEP, market, pricing continues to decline while the contract, and other costs, captured by the Global Adjustment, continues to drive the overall price higher.


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