A questionable 18-month outlook from Ontario's system operator.

Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator today released it's latest 18-Month Outlook - a document they update regularly, and I've written on regularly.

This one strikes me as less than coherent - some of the illogical content deliberate, and some irresponsibly unnecessary.
The supply advice going forward does not match the comfort level with the supply picture during the reporting period.

September 2012's report finished with:

As Ontario’s coal-fired generation is shut down over the next two years, its associated flexibility will be lost. Therefore, future capacity additions should also possess this flexibility to help facilitate the management of maintenance outages, provide effective ramp capability, supply of operating reserve and even provide regulation when necessary.

Today's finishes with

As Ontario’s coal-fired generation is shut down over the next year, its associated flexibility, such as quick ramping and operating reserve, will be lost. Therefore, future supply options, demand response programs, and storage solutions should also possess this flexibility to help facilitate the management of maintenance outages, provide effective ramp capability, supply operating reserve and even provide regulation when necessary.

From that it seems like ~3000MW of coal-fired capacity recently slated for closing at the end of 2013, halfway through the new outlook period, would be problematic.

Not so says the IESO:

Ontario will continue to have adequate generation and transmission capability to meet consumers’ needs over the next 18 months.

He Played Everything

I do not know how to act, or what the occasion demands of me.

A few days ago a tearful son gave me the news about his friend.  I did not know the boy.  

My son plays the bass; they had sometimes played together, in the music room, at lunch.  

Lately, they have not - nobody had.

Years ago, I posted comments on the site of a national newspaper under my name; Scott Luft.  My youngest son came home from elementary school one day - which that year was a wonderful environment for him -  and said he and his excellent teacher had googled my name and my comments on that site had come up.  At the time elementary teachers were threatening job action if they, ridiculously, were not paid the same rate as high school teachers.  The government was poised to introduced full-day junior kindergarten and was, stupidly, acquiescing to make that a windfall for teachers, rather than an important step to increase the role of the physical school as an anchor of a community.  

I switched my online comments to the "Cold Air" pseudonym.

American Tales: True stories from Electricity Data

U.S. President Barack Obama's annual State of the Union address (SOTU) provides an excuse to review the recent release of comprehensive 2011 Electric Power Annual data from the The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).  I've looked at the EIA data in previous years: reviewing the data to 2009 I found little indication of unique accomplishment in reducing emissions through increased generation with renewables; and a year late another look at the same issue with 2010's data reinforced that finding.  This post will look at the national data to show the main reasons for reduced emissions is better pollution control, and increased efficiency.

A switch from coal to natural gas is generally cited as a reason for reduced emissions in America's electricity generation [1] .  The President's SOTU noted emissions of "dangerous carbon pollution" have fallen over the last four years.  The last 4 years nicely commences with an economic collapse, and features a glut in natural gas supply depressing prices.  Charting U.S. production by source, back to 1997 [2], indicates the trend of increased generation from natural gas didn't begin in 2008; total generation is up ~608TWh, and generation from natural gas is up ~534TWh.

Monthly Ontario Electricity Bills Soar and Fall with Nonsensical Global Adjustment Charge

A certain type of electricity consumer in Ontario is subject to billing based on their hourly usage at a market rate, plus a global adjustment charge.

The Global Adjustment (GA) is the difference between the total payments made to certain contracted or regulated generators/demand management projects, and market revenues. (IESO)

The 2nd estimate for January's global adjustment charge, posted January 31st, is $623.6 million, or $50.65/MWh.

Which is nonsense.

An average "Class B" consumer, if charged by the calendar month, had a November 2012 commodity charge at $80.90/MWh, the highest rate since 2002 (not accounting for inflation).
The next month, December, the charge dropped to $66.15/MWh; the lowest price in 27 months.
I estimate a preliminary figure for January of $82.84/MWh, smashing through November's elevated level (HOEP of $31.59 in addition to the $50.65 2nd estimate of the global adjustment).

There is no rational basis for this monthly roller-coaster, lottery inspired, pricing.

2012 Ontario Wind Production Impacts Exports and Price

I've run some data analysis and noting a couple of metrics that indicate characteristic impacts on an electricity market of increasing intermittent generation guaranteed priority access to the grid.

For each of the main sources of electricity generation in Ontario, I found the minimum and maximum levels of the past couple of years and then grouped the production into 8 levels, calculating average HOEP (Ontario market price), and net export volume for each.

As expected, net exports were much higher during hours of higher wind generation.  This is in stark contrast to hydro, coal and gas generation.

Ontario's Electricity Exports Surge: Are they killing us?

I noticed some large export volume moving out of Ontario yesterday, and took a couple of minutes to see how often, in the past, we had been exporting at this level.

Not often.  
The answer is instructive as to the nature of Ontario's reporting of statistics in it's generation of electricity.

IESO Intertie Schedule and flow data summarized by state/provinde

The immediate data indicating import/export activity is the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) Intertie Schedule and Flow Report.  I've been capturing the hourly data from that report since April 1, 2011; Hour 14's 3707 MW is the highest net export level since I started collecting the hourly data from this report in April, 2011.  The fact this record occurred at 2 pm will surprise many as the very common opinion is that Ontario's high export levels are driven by excess production from baseload plants during low demand periods.

Hundred of millions of dollars kept by Ontario's Ratepayers

The price of the electricity commodity in Ontario was only 2% higher in 2012.  The figure is a lot lower than anticipated, and it's worthwhile reviewing why that might be.

Sometimes I think it's a sin
When I feel like I'm losin' when I'm winnin' again. 

-an incorrect recollection of Sundown

According to the year-to-date "commodity charge" noted on the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) Decembers' reporting, the commodity charge was $73.3/MWh in 2012, up from $71.95 in 2011 (for a class B customer).

The increase is far less than anticipated in Ontario's Long Term Energy Plan.  The introduction of the Green Energy Act, in 2009, was accompanied by claims the impact on bills would be "about 1% per year of additional rate increase associated with the bill’s implementation over the next 15 years."  Expert analysis, such as that performed by Bruce Sharp, would soon show the costs would be much higher, and the government's November 2010 Long Term Energy Plan revealed "residential electricity prices are expected to rise by about 7.9 per cent annually" for the next 5 years.

With a market value of approximately $10 billion, total cost inflation in 2012 amounts to approximately $550 million less than anticipated.

Ontario's Decision to Close Coal Plants: Air Quality/Emissions Savings Likely Overstated

The Ontario government has finally announced the closure of the remaining coal-fired units at Lambton and Nanticoke.  For some time the message has been that the government was on track to meet it's revised goal of 2014 (initially 2007 - then 2009), and yet there are no generation projects planned that make the ability to turn off the plants any greater in 2014 than they have been since September of 2012.

Premier Dalton McGuinty was in Newmarket today to announce the Lambton and Nanticoke coal plants will stop burning coal by the end of 2013. The early closure is a result of Ontario's strong conservation efforts, a smarter electricity grid and a diverse supply of cleaner energy. Shutting down the last coal plants in Southern Ontario will significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and save the province $95 million.

I think the move will save money, and I'll not question $95 million.
The reducing greenhouse gas emissions I will question.

Background on why the coal-fired generators weren't already retired