Much ado about Ontario’s new export charge on electricity

Ontario’s Ford government directed the electricity system operation (IESO) to begin levying a $10/MWh ‘surcharge’ on electricity exports to the United States. The official news release states that, “At this level, the surcharge will generate revenue of $300,000 to $400,000 per day, which will be used to support Ontario workers, families and businesses.” All other factors holding unhanged, that would be true, but the other factors involved in Ontario’s electricity pricing make it extremely unlikely that the move will generate any revenue.

Ontario’s electricity exports have relatively recently become dominated by supply from natural gas generators, unlike the exports over the previous decade which were driven by an excess of committed, trivial-emission, supply from nuclear, hydro, wind and solar. One way the switch is visible is in the increased average cost of exports. The simplest measure of costs is the Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP). The average HOEP for exports to the US over the past 3 years isn’t quite $40/MWh, but it’s close enough that the government can excused for using a $10/MWh surcharge to carry out a threat of a 25% increase.

simple rubbish told around the world: an anti-nuclear data story

Australian energy policy personality Simon Holmes à Court posted to X, “the simple fact is *every* new nuclear power project in ontario’s history went way over budget.” I think ‘fact’ needs to be examined. The facts in his post are a distortion of what was, for the most part, delivered much more truthfully 37 years ago.

In Ontario this month the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) is holding public hearings on an application by Ontario Power Generation (OPG, the public generator), “for a licence to construct one BWRX-300 reactor at the Darlington New Nuclear Project Site (DNNP).” Regulator hearings are an income opportunity for groups permitted to act as intervenors. The anti-nuclear Ontario Clean Air Alliance (OCAA) is one such intervenor, and it is from their presentation at the hearing relayed to Australia as “simple fact.”

Many online quickly observed an issue with this table in its disregard of real values in adjusting currency values for time. I will explore that after checking the data sources noted in footnotes.