Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Hudak's numbers and the MSM's biased suspicion

I understand fact-checking political statements but let's be fair...

I'd read Maclean's "Infographic: Where the jobs are in Ontario", and was struck by a couple of things in the opening paragraph:
Ontario PC leader Tim Hudak is staking his electoral changes [chances] on a promise to create one million new jobs if elected, even while cutting 100,000 public sector positions. That may be a challenge since the provincial economy has created just 667,000 new jobs since the Liberals came into power in 2003. Nearly half of those jobs have been in the public sector.
Two things:
  1. what is Hudak staking his electoral chances on? 
  2. what message might the press be broadcasting? 
I think THE message here is that for a decade every time somebody got a job in the private sector another person was hired in the public sector. I'm going to discount the possibility those private sector jobs paid spectacularly well, and assume this is a big part of the $130 billion increase in Ontario's debt during the same period.
That would relate to another one of Hudak's campaign nuggets - one pilloried in today's Globe and Mail.  Formerly Canada's National newspaper, the Globe's editorial board wasted pulp on the "Can Tim Hudak win election by 100,000 job cuts?" editorial.  

The Globe's editors find it inconceivable. that 100,000 jobs could be eliminated after nearly half of 667,000 jobs were added?

Most people find $290 billion of debt inconceivable.

Let's return to the start of the Mclean's article; 'Hudak is staking his electoral changes on a promise to create one million new jobs if elected..."

Consider this [emphasis added]:
Over 50,000 jobs in the next three years are expected to result from implementation of the Green Energy Act.   -News Release, May 14, 2009
The Ontario government is investing $34 billion over two years to stimulate the economy. This timely and targeted investment includes $32.5 billion in infrastructure spending and nearly $700 million in additional funding for skills training. This will preserve or create more than 300,000 jobs over the next two years to support Ontario's families and communities.   -Ontario Budget 2009: News Release, March 6, 2009
It is estimated that, within 10 years, the improvement in Ontario’s tax competitiveness will lead to $47 billion in new investment and 591,000 net new jobs and will raise annual incomes by up to 8.8 per cent.10  ONTARIO’S TAX PLAN FOR JOBS AND GROWTH, Nov. 2009

So what damage is done to Ontario's Liberal Party from the promises of close to 1 million jobs during 2009?

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