Big Thunder is a Big Mistake, and it's not the only one

There were a number of items that caught my attention on the industrial wind turbine front this week, including two articles in the province's largest newspapers (by circulation):

• Ontario is tilting at the wrong windmills is a strong editorial from the Globe and Mail; "...cost is climbing, as expensive wind and solar power is brought into the system, as demanded by Ontario’s Green Energy Plan..."

• Ontario tilts against wind turbines as costs spiral, by the Star's Martin Regg Cohn, showed signs of intellectual, if not emotional, life; "While the NIMBYists beat their breasts, the bean counters took their eyes off the turbines. Politics trumped economics."

The item that inspired me to write is the 18-month outlook released by the system operator (IESO) on Friday.  I've written on the final paragraphs of previous IESO outlooks; this one ends:

In the first 30 days after wind became dispatchable, about 1% of the wind energy that could have been generated was curtailed due to global SBG concerns while 6% of total wind energy available was curtailed due to local SBG concerns. The majority of local SBG concerns were in the northeast and northwest where transmission constraints are more frequent. Wind dispatch in these areas prevented water spillage which was a primary alternative solution to mitigate

There are only two wind generators on the northeast and northwest regions: Prince Farm is just outside of Sault Ste. Marie (which is in the northeast zone), and Greenwich is north of Lake Superior, in the northwest zone.

With a trip to my database to pull my estimates on Curtailment of electricity supply in Ontario, I found that between wind becoming dispatchable and home heating season kicking in, there was one site far more likely to be curtailed than all others - and it's the northwestern Greenwich site.

Over the period noted in the graph the estimate is that 35% of Greenwich's potential generation was curtailed.

The troubling in Auditor's Report on OPG

The Auditor General of Ontario released an annual report and, as a result, it's open season on publicly owned Ontario Power Generation.  Much of the criticism is misplaced, and what criticism is well-placed is illogically morphing into recreating the worst decisions made about Ontario's electricity sector in the 1990's.

As I write this I'm hearing CBC Metro Morning's Matt Galloway repeatedly cite OPG as being responsible for increasing rates. It's a ridiculous implication. In 2013, the total cost of all electricity generation in Ontario will be $1-1.25 billion over what was paid in 2012.  Very little of that increase could be attributed to OPG.

Some of the report's implied criticisms are not only applicable to OPG.

The number of OPG staff on the Sunshine List has grown steadily since the organization was
created in 1999, albeit at a slower pace after the 2010 pay freeze legislation. Over the last 10 years, Ontario Power Generation Human Resources the number has doubled, from 3,980 employees in 2003 to 7,960 in 2012, representing about 62% of the employees on OPG’s payroll; the corresponding increases in total salaries and taxable benefits paid to those on the list were $513 million for 2003 and $1.11 billion for 2012.

Big numbers to be sure, but in percentage terms far beneath the growth in the numbers at the Office of the Auditor General of Ontario, which has more than tripled both the number of people it has on the Sunshine list and their total salaries and benefits - and those people just get your blood to boil, whereas OPG's people get your kettle to boil.

Premier Deception on Oakville Gas Plant Cancellation Costs

I don't write much on the gas plant relocations - my intention having written my thoughts was to move on.

This post isn't about the gas plant issue; it's about a politician communicating only to mislead - which I increasingly think is the purpose of most of Premier Wynne's "conversations."


I read a tweet yesterday from the incurious Globe and Mail Queen's Park Reporter, Adrian Morrow, which reported Ontario's Premier as saying "There is no way to know those costs."

One implication being there were actual costs to know, and a second being they weren't knowable.
Both are mostly false.

2013 LTEP Plan: First Impressions

RATE INCREASES SINCE LTEP 2010

The theme of lower than expected rate increases comes up, and the press repeats claims recent rate increases have been below expectations.

That doesn't appear to be true.

"Since the 2010 LTEP, electricity prices have not increased as much as they were forecast to at that time."

This was true at the start of the LTEP 2013 process, but it looks false to me now after growth in the commodity rate soared since last winter.

The 2010 LTEP stated:

Over the next five years... residential electricity prices are expected to rise by about 7.9 per cent annually (or 46 per cent over five years). 

In October 2010 the year-to-date commodity charge (weighted) was 64.55/MWh, and total market charges were $85.22.
In October 2013 the figures were $85.228/MWh (up 33%) and $107.28 (up 26%).
In November 2010 the average rate for regulated price plans was ~6.9 cents/kWh; 3 years later it's up 29% to 8.9 cents/kWh

Rates are up in line with LTEP 2010's projections.
Reporting on LTEP 2013 notes "Ontario homeowners face a 33 per cent hike in electricity rates over the next three years..." and the same reports say that's less than expected in LTEP 2010 - with its 7.9% a year.

It looks to me that the rate hikes are proceeding as expected.
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The 2013 "Long Term Energy Plan" (LTEP) seems to be, at first glance, a pretty tame, and possibly irrelevant, document.
Perhaps I have a strange perspective, but before I started reading I jotted down a couple of things I'd look for:

Energy literacy as a primer for an energy plan

Last week, in the lead-up to the release of a "Long-Term Energy Plan" (LTEP), the government of Ontario posted a new page to the Ministry of Energy's website: emPOWER Me.   

The page is mainly short video clips, and most are harmless enough.

A look at some of the issues "emPOWER Me" misleads people about (as a prelude to a look at the new LTEP)

The Value of Conservation is a fine sounding, but very misleading video."

Curtailment of electricity supply in Ontario

I've just developed some queries to estimate the curtailment of wind supply on the Ontario grid, and thought a quick, primarily "stats", post might interest some of my readers.

This also provides an opportunity to review methods that the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) uses to reduce supply, and the limitations of estimating those curtailment actions.

1. Non-Utility Generator (NUG) curtailment (discussed here)
2. Hydroelectric output being redirected directly in Quebec's high-voltage direct current (HVDC) grid (discussed here)
3. Nuclear curtailment maneuvering condenser steam discharge valves (CSDV) to reduce output at all Bruce Power's 8 reactors (Bruce A's units gained this capability since I discussed the curtailment method here)
4. Wind curtailment, which became possible on September 11th, 2013, as a result of the IESO's renewable integration initiative.

Generators Output and Capability Report

A record week for Ontario wind

Each week I update my estimates/shadow reporting of the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) data reports; the IESO reports weeks as running from Wednesday to Tuesday.
I reference the first Wednesday of the year as marking week 1; today we begin week 46.

Weekly supply mix chart (from data site)

Week 45 was pretty interesting.
It set at least one record - the highest reporting output from the industrial wind turbines on the IESO grid.

The week also contained the hour of highest IWT output, which is currently hour 11 of the 11th day of the 11th month [1].

Coupled with high nuclear production levels, this plentiful supply resulted in an average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) of $10.23/MWh; that is the second lowest weekly average since the market began (record low is week 14 of 2009, at the depth of the recession and the height of the freshet).

A twitter exchange has motivated me to write a quick entry on the cost of Ontario's changed supply mix at this time of year (all of impacts being predicted by the data analysis behind an earlier blog post).

In Ontario, high supply and low prices end up being very expensive for consumers.

There's never been a worse time for this Conservation thing

To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven:
A time to be born, and a time to die; a time to plant, and a time to pluck up that which is planted   - Ecclesiastes ,3 King James Version [1]

A time to conserve - a time to consume.

As the clock struck midnight with the arrival of November, my hourly rate for electricity went up 7.5%[2], while the rate for export customers was around 1/10th of the residential rate in Ontario, and over 20% of Ontario's generation was being gifted away at those low, low prices.

“There’s never a wrong time to do the right thing ...” - Dalton McGuinty

The current Premier would appear to be trying to take a page out of her predecessor's book of wisdom (a page with 10 words), as her administration seems to have turned the entire public service to promoting "conservation" regardless of the circumstance (abundance).  In a simpleton's world of good and bad, conservation is portrayed as the very best regardless.

Conservation may be, but the conservation the government's agencies are spending their time, and our money, promoting won't conserve energy this winter.

In a recent Twitter Campaign on "phantom power" Ontario's Ministry of Energy found these messages important to communicate:

• Count em' up: how many non-essential appliances do you have plugged in?
• Plug into a power bar with an integrated timer or auto-shutoff. Here’s a coupon...
• Gaming consoles draw #phantompower. Plug them into a power bar and switching it off when you’re not playing
• Unplug that hairdryer or electric toothbrush to save...
• Chargers for cellphones, laptops and other personal devices draw #phantompower. Unplug them when you’re not charging. 
• Unplug small kitchen appliances when not in use. Otherwise they draw...

Regardless of the moral righteousness of conservation programming in general, I got the feeling Ministry wasn't really aware of how phantom power wastes "energy".