Friday, May 11, 2012

Monthly Ontario Electricity Export Figures

Every month Ontario's Ministry of Energy puts out an offensively dishonest misinterpretation of our electricity export profit/loss ledger.
It is here for April now:

Electricity Exports Continue to Generate Revenue:
"Ontario's electricity market generated over $20 million in April by exporting electricity to other states and provinces, bringing total net export revenues to over $75 million this year.
This revenue helps Ontario:

  • Keep costs down for families
  • Build and maintain a clean, reliable and modern electricity system"
Here's a shorthand way to calculate how this absolutely does not "keep costs down for families."



"Total Market Demand" includes both Ontario Demand, and exports.  The value of 1 MWh of electricity, within that market, is the average Hourly Ontario Electricity Price (HOEP).  The amount recovered by the HOEP is not enough to meet Ontario's contracted obligations to suppliers (and the OPA), so the difference is collected through a mechanism called the Global Adjustment (GA).

Total Market Value = [Total Market Demand]*[HOEP] + [GA]

For April, the Total Market Value demand is estimated as $796.1 million, with 209.3 of that from the market HOEP, and the remainder from the Global Adjustment.

Average Price = [Total Market Value]/[Total Market Consumption]

For April, the total market demand was 12.16TWh, so the average price was $65.45.  This is the amount all consumers would pay if all consumers paid the same.
But they don't.  Large industrial users now get a break, but the big difference is that export customers don't pay the global adjustment portion.  For April, that means the average price paid was $65.45/MWh, but export customers paid $17.21/MWh

Export Subsidy = [Total Net Exports]*[Average Price] - [Total Net Exports]*[HOEP]
For April, Net Exports of 1.05TWh had a value of $69 million at the  Average Price , but were sold for around $20 million, so the other $49 million has to be paid by somebody else.

Specifically, Ontario families.

The figures on export sales are estimates based only on the HOEP (hourly Ontario Energy Price) - in actuality export customers pay different rates.  Because Ontario's market pricing is lower, sometimes much lower, than adjacent jurisdictions, it appears from both the ministry 'news' releases, and National Energy Board reporting, we generally export power about 10% above the HOEP rates.  The above formula's yield a figure of $18.15 million for the net export amount the ministry provides as "over $20 million".


Looking at some other figures from the same dataset, we'd expect to see the retail price plan moving away from the Average Price I have calculated for the entire market - and we do.   The graph shows consumer rates start far below market rates (during Ontario's peak demand year of 2005), but since 2010's arrival, the combination of removing Ontario's largest industrial customers from the full impact of the traditional global adjustment mechanism, and the inability to curtail cheap exports, are moving rates higher for "Ontario families" even as the Average Price, taking into account all market segments, has been relatively stable.

That stability is unlikely to continue.


The google spreadsheet, including the graphs, is here

17 comments:

  1. I got this web page from my buddy who informed me on the topic of this
    site and at the moment this time I am browsing this site
    and reading very informative articles at this place.


    My weblog; windows xp registry cleaner

    ReplyDelete
  2. I'm amazed, I must say. Seldom do I come across a blog that's both educative
    and amusing, and let me tell уοu, you've hit the nail on the head. The issue is something that too few people are speaking intelligently about. I am very happy that I stumbled across this in my hunt for something relating to this.

    Also visit my webpage http://www.ares.com/

    ReplyDelete
  3. Link exchange is nothing else but it is simply placing the other
    person's web site link on your page at appropriate place and other person will also do same for you.

    Feel free to surf to my web-site; calorie burn calculator

    ReplyDelete
  4. Can you tell us more about this? I'd care to find out more details.

    Here is my blog :: http://learn2speak.eu/user/view.php?id=13128&course=1

    ReplyDelete
  5. When I originally commented I clicked the "Notify me when new comments are added" checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get several emails with the same comment.
    Is there any way you can remove me from that service? Appreciate it!


    my webpage; airplane flying games

    ReplyDelete
  6. I could not resist commenting. Exceptionally well written!


    My blog ... safe diets

    ReplyDelete
  7. Can I submit your publish to my blog? I'll add a inbound link to your forum. That’s one really candy post.

    My weblog :: help me get pregnant

    ReplyDelete
  8. Thankfulness to my father who informed me
    about this blog, this blog is actually awesome.

    Also visit my blog post - sphincter muscle

    ReplyDelete
  9. Ηelօ to all, hoow iis all, I think еvery one is getting more from this site, and your viеws are pleɑsant inn suppоrt of new
    users.

    Feel free to sսrf to my web blog :: brava greenbush breast enhancement complaints

    ReplyDelete
  10. Awesome issues here. I am very satisfied to see your article.
    Thank you so much and I'm having a look ahead to contact
    you. Will you kindly drop me a mail?

    my page :: nike reviverevolutionize

    ReplyDelete
  11. It could bbe a mild sprain or an x-ray would be a sign of an injury in the process.
    Okay, to recap. So if they test positive to that digit and tape it with
    the axis of the rotation to the point of a distal
    clavicle fragment - everything holdds nicely.
    Put simply, an correct diagnosis will be a problem after a few days.


    Feel free to surf to my blog ... shoulder sprain ()

    ReplyDelete
  12. Quite frankly, contrary to popular belief, making money online isn't as hard or difficult as most folks make
    it out to be and once you understand and implement what is often called the 'power of
    duplication', then anyone - regardless of age, sex, education or technical background can start making
    money just as fast. This article is about generating sales with
    articles. You can run one or more marketing campaign to get the buyers like:.


    Feel free to surf to my blog - fastest way to make money in world of tanks

    ReplyDelete
  13. It plays an important role in the production of Adenosine Triphosphate (ATP).
    Humans, naturally, do not like bitter flavors or
    foods. Not only can an elliptical build muscle, but it will
    also help you burn calories and fat.

    Here is my homepage - Order Power Pump XL

    ReplyDelete
  14. Aсtually nno maatter if someone doesn't be awаree of afterward
    its up to other visitors that they will assist, soo here
    itt occurs.

    ReplyDelete
  15. I every time used to read post in news papers but now as I am a user of internet therefore from now I am using net for content, thanks to web.



    my web blog; http://www.israelnews.co

    ReplyDelete
  16. Aplicar na testa cremes para rugas com tais exercícios, nós não estamos com sorte!
    Para as mulheres, a gente cremes para rugas percebe a diferença entre as sobrancelhas e na prega
    nasolabial, nestes casos eu poderia facilmente emcher com ácido hialurónico.
    Ela é livre de risco, cremes para rugas e nao se expor à ação nociva dos raios ultravioletas.
    Dimetilaminoetanol DMAE é uma etapa difícil de ultrapassar que se desenvvolvem na area periocular.


    Here is my webb blog :: liftderma funciona

    ReplyDelete
  17. I know this if off topic but I'm looking into starting
    myy own weblog and was wondering what all is required to get set up?
    I'm assuming having a blog like yoyrs would cost a pretty penny?
    I'm not very internet smart so I'm not 100% sure.
    Any recommendations or advice would be greatly appreciated.

    Appreciate it

    my page; war thunder system requirements ()

    ReplyDelete