Seat Distribution in the House of Commons

RE: Jeffrey Simpson's Electoral injustice: Cities are getting the shaft

Statistics Canada, and the census, should not be the basis of seat distributions. For starters, census figures are heavily manipulated (they count a million fewer people than the population estimates they give, which they consider more accurate). Secondly, they have an assumption that non-citizen residents will become citizens in their forecasting of future electors..

This drives up the forecasted number of voters in BC and Ontario, both of which have much higher census counts than the registered voter counts, from Elections Canada, would indicate.

Between 2004 and 2008, Alberta's population growth, and its growth in 'electors' (registered voters) were both roughly 12%. In Ontario the voters did grow quicker than the population (6.5 to 4) as they did in BC (9% to 4%). Those results give some credibility to Statistic Canada's assumptions, but not much. Alberta voters are increasing quicker, probably due to interprovincial migration.

I think in general people believe in one citizen, one vote - the census is not a good source of counting citizens, and the statistics Canada modeling of future voter patterns based on it certainly looks flawed to me. Ontario's economic performance has trailed Canada's for the past 7 years, and has become a net loser in interprovincial migration. Current StatsCan pop estimates have Ontario and Quebec growing at about 2% since 2008 (AB at 3.6% and BC at 3.4%).

The baseline for proportional representation should be Quebec - the smaller provinces are set at their guaranteed levels, and Quebec is guaranteed 75 seats. … so let's look at 2008 seats per elected voter, keeping in mind both Alberta and BC are now growing faster than Ontario

	2004			2008
Province	Electors	Seats	Average	Electors	Seats	Average
Alberta	2,171,584	28	77,557	2,433,695	28	86,918
British Columbia	2,750,577	36	76,405	2,996,864	36	83,246
Manitoba	841,061	14	60,076	835,401	14	59,672
New Brunswick	597,440	10	59,744	590,984	10	59,098
Newfoundland and Labrador	405,032	7	57,862	410,411	7	58,630
Northwest Territories	28,619	1	28,619	28,787	1	28,787
Nova Scotia	706,932	11	64,267	727,875	11	66,170
Nunavut	17,041	1	17,041	17,089	1	17,089
Ontario	8,294,928	106	78,254	8,834,987	106	83,349
Prince Edward Island	109,031	4	27,258	108,211	4	27,053
Quebec	5,800,109	75	77,335	5,954,763	75	79,397
Saskatchewan	723,922	14	51,709	715,291	14	51,092
Yukon	20,345	1	20,345	23,281	1	23,281
Grand Total	22,466,621	308	72,944	23,677,639	308	76,811

In 2008 Albertans were the most poorly represented citizens, with one seat for each 86918 electors (not voters), Ontario at 83349, BC at 83246 also exceeded Quebec's 79397 electors/seat.

Adding the 2006 proposal for 12 seats, deemed unacceptable by Premier McGuinty, Ontario's figure dropped down to 74873 electors/seat. That was always going to be a non-starter in Quebec. If Quebec is the yardstick, then 5 seats in Ontario, 3 in Alberta and 2 in BC would be the correct figures.

Putting Ontario to 18 was simply appeasing the thankless Premier of Ontario – and it made sense only in terms of predicting BC and Ontario to have quicker voter growth through non-citizen residents becoming citizens.

In order to set Quebec as the baseline Quebec would need another 10 seats, in addition to Ontario's 18, BC's 7 and Alberta would also need to be bumped up to 7. If we were to do that, the big 4 would have roughly 70000 electors/seat, while the remainder of the country would have about 55000/seat.

Maybe that is desirable, but I doubt it. Ontario 5 seats, BC and Alberta 2-3 each. That would bring them close to Quebec's figures, and be easily justified.

Regardless, the next time you are offered 12 seats, just say thank you and take them.
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Another way of looking at it might be more helpful.  The following list, working directly from Elections Canada 2008 data, shows the smallest riding in Alberta by number of electors, plus the ridings in Ontario with fewer electors than that - note much of the Ontario list is very, very, urban:

Electoral District Name/Nom de circonscription	Population	Electors/�lecteurs
Kenora	64291	42794
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing	77961	59595
York West/York-Ouest	103948	59674
Timmins--James Bay/Timmins--Baie James	80791	59876
Thunder Bay--Superior North/Thunder Bay--Superior-Nord	82589	62338
Thunder Bay--Rainy River	85153	63128
Etobicoke North/Etobicoke-Nord	108501	63700
Davenport	104615	66189
Scarborough--Guildwood	108813	67124
Scarborough Southwest/Scarborough-Sud-Ouest	102196	67988
York South--Weston/York-Sud--Weston	114458	68978
Sault Ste. Marie	89028	69272
Parry Sound--Muskoka	90281	69514
Nipissing--Timiskaming	90963	70178
Scarborough Centre/Scarborough-Centre	108010	71094
Nickel Belt	89377	71107
Don Valley East/Don Valley-Est	109640	71366
Fort McMurray--Athabasca	100805	71621

This is my argument - the representation criteria should be eligible voters.  The population argument is quite different.  Here's the riding with the least population in Alberta, and the ridings in Ontario with less population than that - note the very, very, urban ridings are not on this list:
 

Electoral District Name/Nom de circonscription	Population	Electors/�lecteurs
Kenora	64291	42794
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing	77961	59595
Timmins--James Bay/Timmins--Baie James	80791	59876
Thunder Bay--Superior North/Thunder Bay--Superior-Nord	82589	62338
Thunder Bay--Rainy River	85153	63128
Sault Ste. Marie	89028	69272
Parry Sound--Muskoka	90281	69514
Nipissing--Timiskaming	90963	70178
Nickel Belt	89377	71107
Sudbury	92161	74228
Leeds--Grenville	99206	75075
Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke	98803	75223
Edmonton--Strathcona	99267	75254

 

 The argument for Ontario having 18 seats is a bad one from many perspectives, but the fundamental premise is representation by population, regardless of citizenship.
Voting can be seen as an obligation of the citizen, or as a benefit of citizenship.  That vote should not be diluted through statistical trickery to include non-citizens.