Saturday, September 1, 2012

Better Ontario Electricity Estimates For August

The IESO has posted updated estimates for August's Global Adjustment.
As with July, the 2nd preliminary estimates are unlikely to provide good guidance on the final figures due in a couple of weeks.
The posted 2nd estimate for August 2012

Unlike July, August's mistake appears to me to be a typo, with 38.94 ($/MWh) being entered as 28.94.

July's big discrepancy was in the total pool of money.  A $599 million estimate was reduced to $421.7 million in the final charges.  The reason for the discrepancy being the costs of cancellation of a gas plant in Mississauga, promised during the previous election campaign.  Ontario's Finance Minister noted the costs of cancelling that plant would hit neither electricity rate payers nor tax payers due to the existence of a magical contingency fund (adjective added), but perhaps he did so only in the the proper Liberal government channel (The Toronto Star) without notification of the bureaucracy.

The average market price, or HOEP, for August 2012 was approximately $29.31.  If the estimated GA is correct, the Class B customer price would be $58.25, the lowest price since April 2009.

I suggest counting on $68.25/MWh as a basis for the bills of those not on the regulated price plan (RPP).  This remains far below the regulated rates as the average RPP customer pays over $80/MWh.  The RPP rates are set by the Ontario Energy Board based on estimates from Navigant Consulting.  Navigant has become a favourite source of studies for the American wind industry, and actively promotes services for the solar industry.  Both seem like lovely new businesses, but might explain a lack of attention to updating the old RPP templates, explaining why the summer 2012 estimates are performing so poorly.

August 2012 consumption was up slightly over August 2011.
My data estimates of rates are here (and preliminary monthly report here) - some queries use the IESO's 2nd estimate, so the calculations using the GA rate will be off.  As usual hydro and nuclear, primarily public, receive low prices so as to pay higher rates for, in order of impact to your bill for August, natural gas, conservation, solar and wind.

Wind is particularly low the past 2 months due to the fact it produces very little in the summer months.  Total wind production was up over July, but Dillon, Gosfield, Port Alma (both 1 and 2), and Spence wind generators all saw their least productive months (in terms of capacity factor).


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