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Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Seat Distribution in the House of Commons


RE: Jeffrey Simpson's Electoral injustice: Cities are getting the shaft

Statistics Canada, and the census, should not be the basis of seat distributions. For starters, census figures are heavily manipulated (they count a million fewer people than the population estimates they give, which they consider more accurate). Secondly, they have an assumption that non-citizen residents will become citizens in their forecasting of future electors..

This drives up the forecasted number of voters in BC and Ontario, both of which have much higher census counts than the registered voter counts, from Elections Canada, would indicate.

Between 2004 and 2008, Alberta's population growth, and its growth in 'electors' (registered voters) were both roughly 12%. In Ontario the voters did grow quicker than the population (6.5 to 4) as they did in BC (9% to 4%). Those results give some credibility to Statistic Canada's assumptions, but not much. Alberta voters are increasing quicker, probably due to interprovincial migration.

I think in general people believe in one citizen, one vote - the census is not a good source of counting citizens, and the statistics Canada modeling of future voter patterns based on it certainly looks flawed to me. Ontario's economic performance has trailed Canada's for the past 7 years, and has become a net loser in interprovincial migration. Current StatsCan pop estimates have Ontario and Quebec growing at about 2% since 2008 (AB at 3.6% and BC at 3.4%).

The baseline for proportional representation should be Quebec - the smaller provinces are set at their guaranteed levels, and Quebec is guaranteed 75 seats. … so let's look at 2008 seats per elected voter, keeping in mind both Alberta and BC are now growing faster than Ontario

  2004    2008    
ProvinceElectors SeatsAverageElectors SeatsAverage
Alberta
2,171,584
28
77,557
2,433,695
28
86,918
British Columbia
2,750,577
36
76,405
2,996,864
36
83,246
Manitoba
841,061
14
60,076
835,401
14
59,672
New Brunswick
597,440
10
59,744
590,984
10
59,098
Newfoundland and Labrador
405,032
7
57,862
410,411
7
58,630
Northwest Territories
28,619
1
28,619
28,787
1
28,787
Nova Scotia
706,932
11
64,267
727,875
11
66,170
Nunavut
17,041
1
17,041
17,089
1
17,089
Ontario
8,294,928
106
78,254
8,834,987
106
83,349
Prince Edward Island
109,031
4
27,258
108,211
4
27,053
Quebec
5,800,109
75
77,335
5,954,763
75
79,397
Saskatchewan
723,922
14
51,709
715,291
14
51,092
Yukon
20,345
1
20,345
23,281
1
23,281
Grand Total
22,466,621
308
72,944
23,677,639
308
76,811


In 2008 Albertans were the most poorly represented citizens, with one seat for each 86918 electors (not voters), Ontario at 83349, BC at 83246 also exceeded Quebec's 79397 electors/seat.

Adding the 2006 proposal for 12 seats, deemed unacceptable by Premier McGuinty, Ontario's figure dropped down to 74873 electors/seat. That was always going to be a non-starter in Quebec. If Quebec is the yardstick, then 5 seats in Ontario, 3 in Alberta and 2 in BC would be the correct figures.

Putting Ontario to 18 was simply appeasing the thankless Premier of Ontario – and it made sense only in terms of predicting BC and Ontario to have quicker voter growth through non-citizen residents becoming citizens.

In order to set Quebec as the baseline Quebec would need another 10 seats, in addition to Ontario's 18, BC's 7 and Alberta would also need to be bumped up to 7. If we were to do that, the big 4 would have roughly 70000 electors/seat, while the remainder of the country would have about 55000/seat.

Maybe that is desirable, but I doubt it. Ontario 5 seats, BC and Alberta 2-3 each. That would bring them close to Quebec's figures, and be easily justified.

Regardless, the next time you are offered 12 seats, just say thank you and take them.

--------------
Another way of looking at it might be more helpful.  The following list, working directly from Elections Canada 2008 data, shows the smallest riding in Alberta by number of electors, plus the ridings in Ontario with fewer electors than that - note much of the Ontario list is very, very, urban:


Electoral District Name/Nom de circonscription Population Electors/�lecteurs
Kenora 64291 42794
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing 77961 59595
York West/York-Ouest 103948 59674
Timmins--James Bay/Timmins--Baie James 80791 59876
Thunder Bay--Superior North/Thunder Bay--Superior-Nord 82589 62338
Thunder Bay--Rainy River 85153 63128
Etobicoke North/Etobicoke-Nord 108501 63700
Davenport 104615 66189
Scarborough--Guildwood 108813 67124
Scarborough Southwest/Scarborough-Sud-Ouest 102196 67988
York South--Weston/York-Sud--Weston 114458 68978
Sault Ste. Marie 89028 69272
Parry Sound--Muskoka 90281 69514
Nipissing--Timiskaming 90963 70178
Scarborough Centre/Scarborough-Centre 108010 71094
Nickel Belt 89377 71107
Don Valley East/Don Valley-Est 109640 71366
Fort McMurray--Athabasca 100805 71621



This is my argument - the representation criteria should be eligible voters.  The population argument is quite different.  Here's the riding with the least population in Alberta, and the ridings in Ontario with less population than that - note the very, very, urban ridings are not on this list:
 
Electoral District Name/Nom de circonscription Population Electors/�lecteurs
Kenora 64291 42794
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing 77961 59595
Timmins--James Bay/Timmins--Baie James 80791 59876
Thunder Bay--Superior North/Thunder Bay--Superior-Nord 82589 62338
Thunder Bay--Rainy River 85153 63128
Sault Ste. Marie 89028 69272
Parry Sound--Muskoka 90281 69514
Nipissing--Timiskaming 90963 70178
Nickel Belt 89377 71107
Sudbury 92161 74228
Leeds--Grenville 99206 75075
Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke 98803 75223
Edmonton--Strathcona 99267 75254
 

 The argument for Ontario having 18 seats is a bad one from many perspectives, but the fundamental premise is representation by population, regardless of citizenship.
Voting can be seen as an obligation of the citizen, or as a benefit of citizenship.  That vote should not be diluted through statistical trickery to include non-citizens.

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