The Global Adjustment (GA) is the difference between the total payments made to certain contracted or regulated generators/demand management projects, and market revenues. - IESO
The battle for the future of Ontario energy continues to be fought over many irrelevant numbers, such as how many billions nuclear added to the global adjustment pot over the past number of years. It seems obvious to me that if the Global Adjustment plus market revenues equals the contracted price of power, what would raise prices is not the size of the global adjustment alone, but the size of the contracts. In Ontario there is a lot of noise from forces communicating that $135-$800/MWh contracts aren't inflating rates, but $58/MWh contracts are.
Perhaps I'm a bad judge of obvious.
A breakdown of 'theoretical' figures will put the issue in a perspective on the performance of a contract-heavy electricity sector that may be of use somewhere beyond Ontario's borders.
|The assumptions in the scenario (spreadsheet here)|
Increasing the market rate (in Ontario the HOEP - Hourly Ontario Energy Price) therefore impacts only the unregulated hydro, and the natural gas production, until the HOEP exceeds the base rate for Bruce B.
In 2012's Ontario the HOEP averaged under $25/MWh, largely due to the natural gas price being depressed across North America. Theoretically the market price should be just above the cost of fuel for a natural gas plant.